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Statistics Class, Fall 1999

California State University, Dominguez Hills
University of Wisconsin, Parkside
Latest update: September 13, 1999
E-Mail Curran or Takata.

Lecture Notes on Exercise 2: Hypotheses

  1. The hypothesis on p.16 of the DMBH text states: "women who drink more and more often than other women are more likely to be victims of sexual assault." Would it be reasonable to change the words "are more likely to" to "will"? Explain.

    No. To change the words "are more likely to" to "will" would suggest that drinking would result in victimization. But this is a probabilistic relationship. Most social science relationships are. People are not automatons. They have control over their actions. Not every woman who drinks in a situation in which sexual assaults occur will be victimized. But the probability of that happening is greater. Not every smoker dies of cancer. But the probability of that happening increases with smokers.

    This concept of probabilistic relationships is very important. It means that we must be restrained in our predictions. We cannot say what will happen; we can say what will have a greater chance of happening.

  2. Where do hypotheses come from?

    Hypotheses are predictions about the relationship between variables, based on our expectations about what we should find. Our expectations might come from a theoretical perspective; they might come from a "hunch," which we then go back and try to justify theoretically; or we might use a grounded approach, looking at field data to see what hypotheses they might suggest.